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All Things Considered

In Facing National Security Dilemmas, CIA Puts Probabilities Into Words

In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the compound was actually bin Laden. In this new installment in a series on the intersection of risks and probabilities, Obama's national security quandary takes center stage.

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